The almost eerie, positive price trend of Bitcoin since the beginning of February this year has received something more realistic in the last few days. That it can not always go up, has certainly always been clear to all. And that the Bitcoin has to recover on its long-term path every now and then, is also clear to all. The only question is how big each recovery is. And after such a powerful and certainly power-consuming increase of Bitcoin, the recovery could possibly be a bit longer and a bit bigger. In this respect, the anxious look on the Bitcoin and the coming days is already justified.
I once collected three aspects that currently occupy me to evaluate the situation.
First. On the left you see the logarithmic 1-week chart of Bitcoin (Bitstamp on TradingView). Here is very good to see that the past week ended in plus. However, it formed a so-called shooting star. Small candle body at the bottom with a long top shadow. In an upward movement this usually indicates a reversal. Well, charting and Bitcoin do not always fit together. But can.
Secondly. The right-hand 4-hour chart shows the trend line within which the Bitcoin is currently moving. If he breaks the upper trend line up, the Bull Run can go on and probably with increased speed. If the bottom line is broken, then you can go from a major correction at least times in the direction of the upper dashed, black line. Since the two lines converge, we will probably have a decision in the coming days.
And thirdly. If you look down on the ratio of long positions in the right chart (green) and short positions (red) on the trading platform Bitfinex, you will see that on Sunday at 02:00 pm, the number of short positions from one moment to the other decreased to one third. And that’s not just due to the red candle in this hour. That is certainly more behind it. When we last had such a low number of short positions or a drastic drop in the short positions, the Bitcoin fell a bit later drastically.
I’ve positioned myself with my eToro account CryptosWithB66, which underlies this blog. I’m in cash with 90%. At 10%, I’m short in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. With my short positions, I’m currently positive minus zero. If the Bitcoin according to point two massively exceed the upper trend line, I probably dissolve the short positions. Otherwise, I am considering an increase in short positions. The coming hours or days will be exciting.
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