The logarithmic 1-day chart of Bitcoin (Bitstamp on TradingView) shows the channel highlighted in yellow and the position of the Bitcoin within this channel, namely close to the top. If one were to look at such a chart under normal circumstances, it would be clear where the further path of the value would lead, namely downwards. With Bitcoin, however, nothing is clear these days. Again and again there are new pumps, which are then accompanied and reinforced by retailers. And you have to reckon with these crazy circumstances that the Bitcoin breaks the channel up and its parabolic way goes one or two more stages.
Just the look on the chart gives the feeling that the correction should lead the Bitcoin much further down. We have not really made much of the top, as you can see. In my personal positioning I assume that the Bitcoin, like all other values, also corrects a parabolic increase according to one and the same pattern. Discount of at least 40 to 60% from the top. Down in clearly visible waves and up and down again. Again and again phases of buying, in which the buyers assume that it will go on upwards and on forever. Until sometime the buyers go out and the sellers (the real professionals) gain the upper hand. And again, you have to give time to such a correction. It’s not over in a few days. Specifically, I expect a Bitcoin path down the channel. That’s just my personal opinion.
The shorts in my eToro account are still there. The short on Bitcoin Cash is positive, the one on the Bitcoin is negative. Currently I see no reason to close these shorts. Only when the Bitcoin leaves the channel upwards, does my risk management take effect. Just as the Bitcoin is currently positioned in the channel, we will soon know how to proceed.
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