Even the biggest optimists and bulls among investors in Crypto Coins will gradually sneak up on the idea that during the current price loss of Bitcoin and Altcoins many investors around them gradually bring their profits after the brilliant rally of coins to safety and for oneself only the memory of a once great value of the own depot remains. And if this thought gnaws at them then they also press the sales button and close a long position. And then the downward spiral in the Coin Market starts. And from still slightly downwards it can turn to pretty fast downwards.
A look at the logarithmic 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (Bitstamp on TradingView) shows the yellowed downlink channel. As outlined in the last blog post as a possible move, the Bitcoin has moved up almost to the middle of the channel. He then turned quite precisely at the 0.5er Fibonacci retracement. You know, I’m not a big fan of such mathematical models. But in any case, the programmed trading bots have to align themselves. Currently, the Bitcoin is again heading down towards the bottom of the channel. You know my opinion, which I have been representing for weeks. I can easily imagine Bitcoin aiming for the black dashed line at around 7,400 USD. Slowly but surely. And slowly can mean several weeks here. Short recoveries only delay the correction. The likelihood that it falls further is definitely greater than that it rises again beyond the old highs. And at the end of the day, it’s all about probabilities!
Following these probabilities, I kept to my trading plan shown in the last blog and opened another short position in Bitcoin at the moment of the reversal in the middle of the channel. Currently, I’m short on 25% of my capital in the eToro account CryptosWithB66, which underlies this blog. I will gradually close the shorts as soon as the Bitcoin comes in the range between 8,500 USD and 8,000 USD (Bitstamp). So the further plan.
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