Bitcoin and Altcoins have been running continuously downwards since the 26th June peak. The last few days brought no new, spectacular movements or findings. So we can certainly use the time to make comparisons. How was it back then, when the Bitcoin had the last big peak and how was the pattern of the correction? It is well known and acknowledged that certain patterns repeat themselves in comparable situations and this also independent of the asset class. The comparable situation here is the correction of a parabolic rise.
Concrete. You will see the peak of Bitcoin in December 2017 on the left and the peak in June 2019 on the right in the logarithmic 1-day chart (Bitstamp on TradingView). The peak was followed by a first, very steep drop in December 2017. There followed a recovery. And on this recovery then a second drop, which was not so steep, but continued down. We had that pattern in this blog again and again addressed. In this second not so steep drop, the Bitcoin could be up to date again. And here concretely half way down. If I were to call a similar day from the past that is comparable to the state today, that could be January 31, 2018 (yellow dot in the left chart). This would make it clear what is still waiting for the downside potential on the Bitcoin. So far the theoretical, but in my opinion not completely devious consideration.
I am still invested in my short positions in my eToro account CryptosWithB66. All short positions are now clearly in the plus. I will gradually close them from 8,500 USD (Bitstamp) downwards. As I had described in the last blog too. Currently, I see no reason to take further short positions. To be short with 25% of the capital in an unpredictable and highly manipulative value, as the Bitcoin is, is absolutely sufficient in terms of the risk assessment. As the first big goal in the further path of Bitcoin down I still see the area around the 7,400 USD (Bitstamp) where the upper dashed black line is.
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